Location, Location, and Parturition

If you are were me, you might not have even know what the word “Parturition” means until today. It means birth.

But, why am I talking about Parturition (birth) and Location?

As my husband and I have traveled with our kids along Arizona highways and have seen the expanse of homes cropping up everywhere, I wonder about the future. Will people actually live in these homes that already seem so far out and remote in the future? They already seem so far from everything. There are full HOA communities that are being built far from the major cities, and with no amenities nearby.

But, back to the birth thing that I brought up. The birth rate in the United States has been on the decline for quite some time, and our age expectancy hasn’t really increased all that much in 46 years. In 1975, the average life expectancy was 75 years for both male and female. In 2018, the average life expectancy was 78 years old. We have gained +3 years in 46 years.

Our birth rate has taken a huge plunge from 1950 to 2018. in 1950, all races were having approximately 24.1 children per 1000 people in the United States (considered the “Crude Birth Rate). In 2018, that number went to 11.6, which is less than half of what it was in 1950.

Arguably, you can say our population has increased since 1950, however, we are not replacing the population we have at that can come at a critical cost. Japan is having a crisis, along with many other countries when the younger generation does not have enough children to support an older generation. There are not enough workers to support the older people-healthcare being a huge primary issue.

Back to the housing issue. The homes that are so far out in the desert. Many people take out mortgages for 30 years and feel that they will live in that house until retirement and a younger generation will come in and take over the home.

But what if there is not a younger generation to take over the home? I look at these homes far away from everything and think of the huge oversupply that we could have in years to come.

We will always have immigration, but this will not be enough to offset our birth rate. Pick your location wisely and always think of resale. Remote places will be harder to sell if they are not located near amenities. When there is a reduction in population, people tend to trend to city centers and move like a target toward those. Things on the outskirts will often be left behind without services.

I’m not saying this to frighten anyone, but just to be aware of our moving world and how things may work in the future as you make plans.

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